Climate changes, so what is it supposed to be in the future?
Future climate estimation methods
For estimation of climate change, numerical models of main circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which are called Global Climate Models, had been worked out. In these models conduct of earth climate system is calculated according to basic laws of physics.
Global Climate Models can estimate the influence of concentration increasing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the earth radiation balance in numerical way, and allows using them for the future climate estimating.
Let us see, how modern models describe climate change of the instrumental change period under the effect of natural and anthropogenic factors.
If natural and anthropogenic factors are taken into consideration in the models, than they rather truthfully describe climate change that already has been made.
Accounts, made with the use of climate models show that to next 100 years may be significant air temperature increasing concerning modern meanings. Distribution of the expected changes in time and area is called climate scenario.
Disorder in estimation is determined with difficulties in modeling and GHG uncertain future concentrations in the atmosphere.
27-04-2006
Source:
IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001