Climate changes, so what is it supposed to be in the future?
Climate scenarios
The speed of global warming and its response in separate regions depends on the GHG emissions to the earth atmosphere in the nearest and remote future. The one can not say definitely how much, when and what kind of GHG will be received by the atmosphere. It depends on different kind of causes and that is why scientists work out greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
For instance, by one of the emission scenarios supposed that the planet population will grow to 11,3 milliard by the year 2100, economical growth will be 2,3-2,9% per year and no actions for the greenhouse gas emission reduce will be done. It’s so called scenario of nonintervention. Other scenarios suppose more or less quantity of emissions according to the difference in accounts on planet population increasing, economical growth, usage of different kinds of fuel, technologies and energy sources.
Calculations according to the Global Climate Models suggesting increase of global air temperature in 1,4-5,8C have been made for each emission scenario.
All temperature, rainfall and drainage level changes estimates for the next 100 years represent variations of climate system reaction on the increasing of greenhouse effect, i.e. climate scenarios. The reproduction quality of air temperature change of hemispheres and continents by the climate models are even higher, than for the separate regions. Square averaging, which is characteristic of the global models, smoothes the amplitude fluctations of climate change in separate areas. However, all models show the largest quantities of warming at the high latitudes of the North hemisphere.
27-04-2006
Source:
IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001