Uzbekistan and climate change problem
Climate scenarios for the territory of Uzbekistan
What kind of climate changes can happen in our republic and when? Let us examine different scenarios.
Scenarios to the period when CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled. This scenario describes the climate of hypothetic period, when CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled. Construction of such climate scenarios for Uzbekistan is made on the database of 4 climate models. The results show possibility of increasing of year’s average temperature along the territory of Uzbekistan up to 5,20 C to 1.00C (concerning the norm of 1951-1980).
Expected rainfall level on Uzbekistan and adjoined mountain territory makes 99-120% in average, and it means that some tendency for rainfall level increasing exists.
Scenarios up to 2030. Expected temperature and rainfall level meanings were calculated with the use of empiric-statistic method, which was worked out in Uzbekistan.
Calculations were made for soft, moderate and severe scenarios of greenhouse gas emission. Moderate scenario is the one, which suppose CO2 concentration increasing on 1% a year. In case of its realization increasing of year’s average temperature on 0,8-3,40C on the territory of Uzbekistan (concerning the norm of 1961-1990) is expected.
Stronger respond to the global warming should be expected in north-west plains regions of the Republic (red line), moving to the south response weakens, and less response to the global warming is expected in south and mountainous regions. Constructed scenarios were used for the of climate change consequences estimate in Uzbekistan.